Barking and Dagenham set to suffer according to report’s bleak outer London Brexit forecast
PUBLISHED: 14:07 11 January 2018 | UPDATED: 14:21 11 January 2018
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Outer London boroughs, which includes Barking and Dagenham, will suffer the greatest productivity loss in the capital after Brexit, according to a report commissioned by the Greater London Authority.
Outer London’s economy is centred on “population driven sectors” including construction, education and health, it says.
“Brexit means some EU nationals who are currently holding such jobs will be replaced by UK and non-EU nationals who may not be as skilled and experienced,” says the report.
This work cannot be relocated and is necessary to meet the needs of the population, it says.
Mayor of London Sadiq Khan said: “This independent analysis reveals the potential economic risks – and human costs – at stake in the negotiations.
“It should help guide the guide the government to the best outcome for London and the UK.
“The analysis concludes that the harder the Brexit we end up with, the bigger the potential impact on jobs, growth and living standards.”
Productivity will fall between 0.3 and 0.7 per cent depending on the UK’s settlement with the EU, according to Cambridge Econometrics’ analysis.
This is compared to a 0.1 to 0.2 pc fall in productivity forecast for inner London.
Inner London’s productivity decrease will be smaller because “high-value and high-productivity sectors” will locate there, the report says.
London’s overall economic output could be 2 pc lower by 2030 than predicted under the status quo.
However London is expected to “suffer significantly less” than other places in the UK, where economic output could fall on average between 3 and 3.3 pc.
In outer London there will be a 1.2 pc to 3.7 pc population decrease, a 0.5 to 1.3 pc employment decrease and a 0.8 to 2 pc decrease in value of goods and services.
The research was commissioned by Mr Khan after the government’s Brexit secretary David Davis was forced to admit the government had not produced detailed economic impact assessments as previously claimed.
Peter John, London Councils’ executive member for Brexit, said: “These figures reveal the stark consequences of a hard Brexit scenario and its potential impact on ordinary Londoners.”
Barking and Dagenham was one of only five London boroughs to back Brexit, with 62.4 pc of voters (46,130) voting to leave the EU.